Is the current rally telegraphing a durable peace plan in West Asia, boosted by United States (US) President Donald Trump's incoherent and contradictory posts on social media?
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
'The day is not too far when the share of MFs alone will be greater than that of foreign institutional investors.'
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
The government is considering allowing investment by foreign institutional investors in the print media within the 26 per cent ceiling allowed for foreign direct investment, Rajya Sabha was informed on Monday.
The Indian rupee plummeted to a new all-time closing low of 95.81 against the US dollar, driven by surging crude oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a strengthening dollar index.
FIIs accumulated India's top-listed companies at an average valuation of around 16 times.
'Once the market decides it wants to go up, it goes up -- no amount of bad news can really hold it back.'
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
From the Sensex firms, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries were among the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Maruti were the laggards.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
Stock market participants would track global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in a holiday-shortened week ahead, amid lack of any major domestic trigger in sight, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
FIIs pump in $1.4 billion in March, after pulling out $2.9 billion in Jan-Feb.
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
Investors will take cues from the December quarter corporate earnings, with blue-chips like Infosys, Reliance Industries scheduled to report their results this week, in addition, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors will also be crucial in dictating market trends, analysts said.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said.
The Centre is regularly holding consultations with stakeholders to streamline foreign direct investments (FDIs) and foreign institutional investments (FIIs) related processes to enable faster and more efficient investment flows into the country, said Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, adding one such meeting with stakeholders was held on Tuesday.
Concerned over the increasing flow of banking funds into the stock markets, the Reserve Bank on Friday tightened the credit facility for Mutual Funds and asked banks not to guarantee payments to stock exchanges on behalf of Foreign Institutional Investors.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
To be sure, this is not some stunning new revelation that our equity markets are beholden to foreign flows.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
The implication of April 2 reciprocal tariffs on global trade, trends in overseas markets and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate equity investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Stock markets would remain closed on Monday for Eid-Ul-Fitr.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty dived sharply by nearly 2 per cent on Sunday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed a hike in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives. Reversing the early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged sharply by 2,370.36 points or 2.88 per cent to slide below the 80,000-mark at 79,899.42 in afternoon trade as the finance minister announced a hike in STT on futures contracts to 0.05 per cent from the current 0.02 per cent.
'We may see this momentum going into 2025 and may keep up with the demand, given the strong pipeline.'
The total value of holdings of domestic institutional investors as a percentage of the value of FII holdings has reached its highest level in four years.
The strong domestic flow offset selling by foreign portfolio investors who pulled out $23.3 billion (Rs 2.03 trillion) from domestic equity markets in CY25.
India has taken several measures to ease restrictions for foreign investors in domestic debt markets. They still feel it's not enough. Here's why
'A balanced portfolio mix of domestic and international equity, fixed income, and precious metals is recommended.'
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will guide equity market movement this week, which would also mark the beginning of the new calendar year and month, analysts said.
Market experts say that FIIs have been caught off-guard on their exposures to companies with high-leverage and those facing cyclical headwinds.
They have put in $14 billion so far in 2014 but this could get slower if the US Fed raises rates; however, there are expectations on compensatory flows.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
